Event Shuttle Fails
Posted: 17 February 2017 12:28 PM   [ Ignore ]  
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I know people have posted about this a lot, and I know that when calculations are done that shuttles actually come in at the %s that they’re supposed to, but there’s something different going in with the event shuttles.

Out of the past 9 shuttle missions, all at 90% or higher, 5 have failed.  A guy in my fleet had TWO fail that were at 99%.  This doesn’t happen with regular shuttle missions, just the events since the start of the new year.  What is going on DB???

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Posted: 17 February 2017 02:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]  
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I feel your pain, having the same sort of RNG failure rate aswell, 24 shuttles sent out over the past 24 hours all 75%+, 11 failures. What bugs me, I have been playing this game 7 months now, finally FF/FE my first batch of 4*‘s this week including kal-if-fee spock, yet my win rate or ability to, consistently ,in an event get over the 1800pt mark has stayed the same… Do events get universally harder over time? Or do they get harder for the individual? It doesn’t feel like I am moving upwards at all….

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Posted: 17 February 2017 02:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]  
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I’ve been keeping stats on this, and while the sample size is only 80, I’ve had 54 failures.  Over 80% of these went off at 65%+ chance of success, according to the game.  The results have been so discouraging, that I have more or less tanked the last four faction events half way through, and went back to normal shuttle runs and leveling.  The same thing appears to be happening again with this event, as two of my last four missions just crashed and burned, both with 80% success probability. 

Just now, I just launched four more event shuttles with projected success rates of 80%, 88%, 79%, and 86%.  I also opened four others, but left them in the que as those missions, even loaded with high level event and bonus crew, and applying 4* boosts, couldn’t achieve 60% success probability.  I’ll post back again with results once the shuttles return in a couple of hours.  If it was just bad luck last time, then all four of these should succeed.  We’ll see.  Now off to the Gauntlet, which is actually fun…

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Posted: 17 February 2017 02:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]  
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No, your ranking should get better, but, for example, I have always finished in the 1500-2000 range.  Now even though I have more powerful characters and tons of event characters, I’m in the 7000 range….

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Posted: 17 February 2017 03:35 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]  
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guest_739898688425984 - 17 February 2017 12:28 PM

What is going on DB???

I can answer that. You are having a bit of bad luck which is feeding into a skewed perception bias (you tend to remember losing streaks more than winning streaks - all humans do this, it’s very normal).

Nothing special.

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Posted: 17 February 2017 06:41 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]  
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C-Note - 17 February 2017 02:43 PM

I’ve been keeping stats on this, and while the sample size is only 80, I’ve had 54 failures.  Over 80% of these went off at 65%+ chance of success, according to the game.  The results have been so discouraging, that I have more or less tanked the last four faction events half way through, and went back to normal shuttle runs and leveling.  The same thing appears to be happening again with this event, as two of my last four missions just crashed and burned, both with 80% success probability. 

Just now, I just launched four more event shuttles with projected success rates of 80%, 88%, 79%, and 86%.  I also opened four others, but left them in the que as those missions, even loaded with high level event and bonus crew, and applying 4* boosts, couldn’t achieve 60% success probability.  I’ll post back again with results once the shuttles return in a couple of hours.  If it was just bad luck last time, then all four of these should succeed.  We’ll see.  Now off to the Gauntlet, which is actually fun…

All four missions returned successfully.  This is a pleasant surprise.  But this next batch, the difficulty ramped up.  72%, 64%, 56%, and 54%.  Partly, this is a result of some bad missions that do not match my characters optimally, and probably also because the points have jumped to 1,800 from 1,250.  This will probably be my last run, as I just landed my second star for KF Spock, and the 3rd looms too far away at 120k when I have barely 18k.  I suppose I could buy the $50 event pack…that would certainly result in FF Spock, land Lwaxana, maybe even get a second star and KF Kirk, plus enough boosts to keep going for awhile longer, not to mention the 1k chrons and dilithium. The flip side to that is that most of the other characters from the packs will get airlocked since I have the bulk of the 3*‘s already FF, and I am running out of crew space.  I have too many 5*‘s that need attention already, so adding more to the mix doesn’t seem like a good idea at this point.  Maybe I’ll change my mind if I get pleasantly surprised again.

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Posted: 17 February 2017 07:01 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]  
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I think the main problem here is it’s not giving you accurate data.
When it says 77% or 92% or whatever, that is a lie.

We already know that the time to completion is often a lie - saying 3 hours and then it starts counting down from 1:30 for example, so I’m sure the percentages are also wrong. This is quite infuriating; you can’t trust what you see.

Yes, I know restarting the app can sort this out, but that takes way too long and these shuttles already put way too much pressure on time as it.is.

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Posted: 17 February 2017 09:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]  
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Xanathar - 17 February 2017 07:01 PM

I think the main problem here is it’s not giving you accurate data.
When it says 77% or 92% or whatever, that is a lie.

We already know that the time to completion is often a lie - saying 3 hours and then it starts counting down from 1:30 for example, so I’m sure the percentages are also wrong. This is quite infuriating; you can’t trust what you see.

Yes, I know restarting the app can sort this out, but that takes way too long and these shuttles already put way too much pressure on time as it.is.

I don’t think restarting the app always fixes it, as I’ve seen at least two instances this event where it didn’t I try to restart my phone 5-10 mins before shuttles arrive back….

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Posted: 17 February 2017 10:20 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]  
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C-Note - 17 February 2017 06:41 PM
C-Note - 17 February 2017 02:43 PM

I’ve been keeping stats on this, and while the sample size is only 80, I’ve had 54 failures.  Over 80% of these went off at 65%+ chance of success, according to the game.  The results have been so discouraging, that I have more or less tanked the last four faction events half way through, and went back to normal shuttle runs and leveling.  The same thing appears to be happening again with this event, as two of my last four missions just crashed and burned, both with 80% success probability. 

Just now, I just launched four more event shuttles with projected success rates of 80%, 88%, 79%, and 86%.  I also opened four others, but left them in the que as those missions, even loaded with high level event and bonus crew, and applying 4* boosts, couldn’t achieve 60% success probability.  I’ll post back again with results once the shuttles return in a couple of hours.  If it was just bad luck last time, then all four of these should succeed.  We’ll see.  Now off to the Gauntlet, which is actually fun…

All four missions returned successfully.  This is a pleasant surprise.  But this next batch, the difficulty ramped up.  72%, 64%, 56%, and 54%.  Partly, this is a result of some bad missions that do not match my characters optimally, and probably also because the points have jumped to 1,800 from 1,250.  This will probably be my last run, as I just landed my second star for KF Spock, and the 3rd looms too far away at 120k when I have barely 18k.  I suppose I could buy the $50 event pack…that would certainly result in FF Spock, land Lwaxana, maybe even get a second star and KF Kirk, plus enough boosts to keep going for awhile longer, not to mention the 1k chrons and dilithium. The flip side to that is that most of the other characters from the packs will get airlocked since I have the bulk of the 3*‘s already FF, and I am running out of crew space.  I have too many 5*‘s that need attention already, so adding more to the mix doesn’t seem like a good idea at this point.  Maybe I’ll change my mind if I get pleasantly surprised again.

Three out of four failed.  Done with this event.  Enough is enough.

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Posted: 18 February 2017 02:33 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]  
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C-Note - 17 February 2017 10:20 PM
C-Note - 17 February 2017 06:41 PM
C-Note - 17 February 2017 02:43 PM

I’ve been keeping stats on this, and while the sample size is only 80, I’ve had 54 failures.  Over 80% of these went off at 65%+ chance of success, according to the game.  The results have been so discouraging, that I have more or less tanked the last four faction events half way through, and went back to normal shuttle runs and leveling.  The same thing appears to be happening again with this event, as two of my last four missions just crashed and burned, both with 80% success probability. 

Just now, I just launched four more event shuttles with projected success rates of 80%, 88%, 79%, and 86%.  I also opened four others, but left them in the que as those missions, even loaded with high level event and bonus crew, and applying 4* boosts, couldn’t achieve 60% success probability.  I’ll post back again with results once the shuttles return in a couple of hours.  If it was just bad luck last time, then all four of these should succeed.  We’ll see.  Now off to the Gauntlet, which is actually fun…

All four missions returned successfully.  This is a pleasant surprise.  But this next batch, the difficulty ramped up.  72%, 64%, 56%, and 54%.  Partly, this is a result of some bad missions that do not match my characters optimally, and probably also because the points have jumped to 1,800 from 1,250.  This will probably be my last run, as I just landed my second star for KF Spock, and the 3rd looms too far away at 120k when I have barely 18k.  I suppose I could buy the $50 event pack…that would certainly result in FF Spock, land Lwaxana, maybe even get a second star and KF Kirk, plus enough boosts to keep going for awhile longer, not to mention the 1k chrons and dilithium. The flip side to that is that most of the other characters from the packs will get airlocked since I have the bulk of the 3*‘s already FF, and I am running out of crew space.  I have too many 5*‘s that need attention already, so adding more to the mix doesn’t seem like a good idea at this point.  Maybe I’ll change my mind if I get pleasantly surprised again.

Three out of four failed.  Done with this event.  Enough is enough.

Decision justified…four out of four successful…10 gold trainers, and a critically needed item for a L100 1/5 received on the Section 31 mission.  Now can replicate the last item needed to FE Duelist Torres with minimal pain.  Cool.  Plus that, the Romulan mission, which I shortened using the time reduction boost with 96% projected success, is due in a few minutes from now, after which I will launch my night ending 9 hour missions.  Maybe lightning will strike twice?

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