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Shuttle Mission / Success Chances
Posted: 11 January 2017 03:16 PM   [ Ignore ]  
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Apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere, but after searching a bit I didn’t see anything.

I’ve noticed that the more crew I pile into a shuttle the worse those crew members talents seem to get.

As you could see if this system would allow me to attach a .JPG, each member of this away team has a 26% or better chance of success by themselves, but as I add in more members, their collective chances go down.

The mission is Hirogen: Negotiate Hunting Rights (Sci/Sec/Com/Dip)

Subcommander T’Pol alone shows 26%
Mirror K’Ehleyr alone shows 30%
Klingon Dukat alone shows 26%
Mirror Uhura alone shows 27%

All together I get a 79% chance of success.

What’s up with that?

26 + 30 + 26 + 27 ≠ 79

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Posted: 11 January 2017 03:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]  
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Agreed, the success rate should be 109%. I’d open a ticket….


smile

There was a pretty extensive post that reviewed shuttle chances (and many, many more complaining about RNG) - keep searching, it will explain.

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Posted: 11 January 2017 03:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]  
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Yep, built-in diminishing returns.

Some very dedicated math people managed to crack the exact equation: http://startrektimelineswiki.com/wiki/Faction_Missions

But in standard English: just putting any warm bodies in the crew slots, you’re starting with a 15% chance of success (this is why people have noticed 0% missions actually succeeding), then you are slightly “over-paying” up to about 25%... from ~25% to ~75%, the relationship between skill points and chance of success are almost perfectly evenly correlated… but starting around 75%, you start over-paying again (high powered crew result in a reduced increase in success chances) and after 85%, the over-pay is not worth it on harder missions unless you have an absolutely gigantic crew of FF/FE 4* and 5*. And even then, on harder missions, it’s virtually impossible to get the success meter to read “100%.” The best you can do is 99%, because that’s how far the returns diminish.

So: you have a final slot on your first shuttle, and playing your 650 skill crew brings you up to 83%, but playing your 600 skill crew brings you to 81%. Your mileage may vary, but in that case, my play is always to put the 650 crew on a second shuttle, where the incremental 50 points might be worth 5 or more percentage points on my success chances.

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Posted: 11 January 2017 03:51 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]  
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Braindead - 11 January 2017 03:28 PM

Agreed, the success rate should be 109%. I’d open a ticket….


smile

There was a pretty extensive post that reviewed shuttle chances (and many, many more complaining about RNG) - keep searching, it will explain.


I just went through 6 pages of search results on the word “shuttle” and did find a very long thread whose topic was about the frustrations of failing a bunch of missions above 80% and then everyone explaining for about 7 pages how percentages work.

That’s not what I’m talking about here.

If 4 of us all have 25% of something, and we combine our stuff, we’d have 100% of the whole. In this case my crew had 109% of something (chance of success) and yet when combined it somehow came to only 79%

If there is a thread discussing that particular topic, I’d love to read it. Otherwise, maybe someone can explain in this thread.

 

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Posted: 11 January 2017 04:35 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]  
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Kubiak - 11 January 2017 03:51 PM
Braindead - 11 January 2017 03:28 PM

Agreed, the success rate should be 109%. I’d open a ticket….


smile

There was a pretty extensive post that reviewed shuttle chances (and many, many more complaining about RNG) - keep searching, it will explain.


I just went through 6 pages of search results on the word “shuttle” and did find a very long thread whose topic was about the frustrations of failing a bunch of missions above 80% and then everyone explaining for about 7 pages how percentages work.

That’s not what I’m talking about here.

If 4 of us all have 25% of something, and we combine our stuff, we’d have 100% of the whole. In this case my crew had 109% of something (chance of success) and yet when combined it somehow came to only 79%

If there is a thread discussing that particular topic, I’d love to read it. Otherwise, maybe someone can explain in this thread.

here you go. https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/58083/

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Posted: 12 January 2017 10:00 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]  
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p377y7h33f - 11 January 2017 04:35 PM

here you go. https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/58083/

Thanks!

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