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Chances of success in Tales of Ice and Fire. 
Posted: 08 September 2017 03:08 PM   [ Ignore ]  
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Smallfolk
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Why is it that I get failed results much more often when the chances of success are 90 percent or higher?

This is not based on a hunch or just focusing on failures. I’ve kept track of attempts and the shown “chances of success” and have found failures happen more often when the odds are higher than 90 percent.

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Posted: 08 September 2017 05:07 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]  
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It’s called cheating or misrepresentation by ANet

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Posted: 08 September 2017 08:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]  
Stablehand
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Ok, I’ll bite.  Does it feel like the success rate goes down if you only play normal at 95-99%?  I find my success rate always goes up in approximately the same proportion to the stated odds, but of course I don’t expect that if I see 85% at the start of an epic round that I’ll see 85% straight through to the end and finish up with an 85% shot of winning all 5 locations.  All it takes is 2 losses in a location and you are out.

I’m gonna go ahead and break out the math to show you why you didn’t stand a 90% chance on winning the whole thing even though it said it was 90% at the start. I’m going to assume you are playing on hard, as 90% on epic would require some pretty great gear from the outset.

hard 1: 675/(675+75) = 90%
epic 1: 1800/(1800+200) = 90%

So, let’s assume you have an average combined score of about 675. Your chances of winning 2 of 3 of the first round is:

.9 * .9 * (3 - 2 * .9) = 97.2%

Even better, now we are at 97.2% chance of winning location 1.

hard 2: 675/(675+92) = 88%  * note that these are truncated in game, even 88.99% would end up 88%
hard 3: 675/(675+104) = 86%
hard 4: 675/(675+128) = 84%
hard 5: 675/(675+150) = 81%

Hmm, that 90% turned into 81% by location 5. Now to further complicate things, let’s look at the amount required to win at least 2 of 3 stages at each location.

hard 1: .9*.9*(3-2*.9) = 97.2%
hard 2: .972 * .88*.88*(3-2*.88) = 93.3368832%
hard 3: .933368832 * .86*.86*(3-2*.86) = 88.3609072828416%
hard 4: .883609072828416 * .84*.84*(3-2*.84) = 82.298642155980403507%
hard 5: .82298642155980403507 * .81*.81*(3-2*.81) = 74.514671983583464982%

So from that lofty 90% chance at the start, now you are down to only a 74.5% chance of winning all 5 locations.  If you stopped after 1 or 2 locations, your success would be even better than the initial 90%, but as you continue, the tiny chances of failure will keep compounding and making your overall chances look less positive.

Note: this doesn’t factor in buffs and debuffs, that makes it all more complicated yet again, nor does it factor in that the numbers won’t all be 675, they’ll change for each sword pairing and with each action and direction of attack, but this will give you the ballpark numbers to see why 90% turns out less than that as you try to finish location 5.  The difficulty also increases with each win in a location, up to the cap (195 for hard), and each location will also be further capped by the next higher location’s difficulty (1 <= 2 <= 3 <= 4 <= 5).

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Posted: 09 September 2017 02:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]  
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actually by managing you buffs and debuffs properly the % wont fall all that greatly as you go from stage to stage.

Now that, that is said…if we use your math then DB is wrong (which we all know they are), and if DB is wrong why should we trust in their ability to implement a proper rng? (which the term random number generator in itself is ridiculous because the numbers are not actually randomly generated but rather generated using an algorithm, so then why should it be considered ridiculous to want the rng algorithm to be properly balanced out in such a way as to remain true to the statistical chances?)

P.S by DB is wrong, I mean they literally keep talking about how previous rolls don’t affect future ones, yet love talking about how they supposedly check the rng stats and every thing seems to be balanced out within reason (meaning its not a perfect balance but no numbers are being produced vastly more than the others), so that 90% is always 90% on every roll, and that 81% is always an 81% chance.

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Posted: 09 September 2017 03:31 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]  
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I don’t think I said that the rolls had a memory or anything of the sort.  I simply said that the probability of getting a certain sequence of wins isn’t the same thing as the probability of winning the very first stage you encounter, or any particular stage after that.

I very much doubt that DB or most gaming companies write their own RNG.  Perhaps some higher end gambling firms may do something fancier than the stock mersenne twister used by most current languages and platforms.  For most uses, especially with many users pulling random counts of numbers out of it at random times and somewhat frequently, the stock one would be sufficiently close to a fair random distribution for most uses, and would be essentially impossible to guess or predict the outcomes to any gainful degree of success.  Is there more that’s needed?

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Posted: 09 September 2017 04:52 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]  
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yitamin - 09 September 2017 03:31 AM

I don’t think I said that the rolls had a memory or anything of the sort.  I simply said that the probability of getting a certain sequence of wins isn’t the same thing as the probability of winning the very first stage you encounter, or any particular stage after that.

I very much doubt that DB or most gaming companies write their own RNG.  Perhaps some higher end gambling firms may do something fancier than the stock mersenne twister used by most current languages and platforms.  For most uses, especially with many users pulling random counts of numbers out of it at random times and somewhat frequently, the stock one would be sufficiently close to a fair random distribution for most uses, and would be essentially impossible to guess or predict the outcomes to any gainful degree of success.  Is there more that’s needed?

If the probability of winning a sequence is not equal to the probability of winning one then you are indeed saying the rolls have a “memory” or something of the sort.

If more was not needed, then you wouldn’t have players complaining about unbalanced stats with their rolls…....db knows full well the stats don’t balance out with all players even if it balances out game wide, they know their are players at the median-far negative end, and players at the median-far positive end, the whole reason they claimed to have included luck in dragon crafts was because of the players trying to craft it who were at the far negative end falling far more times than db themselves supposedly intended for a player to fail.

P.S its with users pulling numbers, because again it isn’t actually truly random. Also I never even said db made their own, I said something along the lines of can we trust that they implemented it properly (basically can we trust that they programmed it into the game or programmed the game to use it properly).

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Posted: 09 September 2017 12:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]  
Stablehand
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Sure, I’ll dance the dance one more round, in case you mean what you say, and aren’t just trolling.

No, expecting a sequence out of the RNG does not impart memory into it.  DB did indeed craft the rules of tales to expect certain sequences, but that also does not mean any memory was bestowed to the RNG.  The RNG cares not of this, it is simply dishing out random numbers.  If you manage to impart some memory into a coin, a set of dice or a deck of cards through wishing for certain sequences, or doing math at it, please do let us know.  There’ll be money to be made there for sure! :p

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Posted: 09 September 2017 02:02 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]  
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seems you might be trolling, the reason the word memory was in quotes is because it is how you referred to it.
If db has crafted the rules of tales to expect certain sequences then they have already biased tales and I imagine it would be biased in their favor…..now you seem to confuse yourself with your own word, “memory” as I figured you meant it (since no one said you or anyone was having the system memorize anything)is that since the system uses an algorithm that is meant to dish out numbers but also set to balance out those stats over a set amount of rolls, the system is therefore set to take previous results into the equation (otherwise you could never guarantee a stat would balance out or seemingly balance out at any given point, stats don’t balance out in life at certain amount of tries), also you yourself used an equation of probability which actually takes previous results into consideration, it literally is the calculation of getting any particular set/sequence of numbers, and the way it calculates that is by calculation the chances of getting a specific number after already having gotten a specific previous number…....your twisting your self around and yet apparently don’t even realize it.

Also people need to stop using the dang coin flip analogy, a coin flip is not some unbiased random event, the side the coin drops on is based on this such as how hard/high you flipped it, how you flipped it, what side it was on when you flipped it, weight of the coin….just because most of us don’t take the time to manipulate a coin flip doesn’t mean its random or an actual 50/50 chance, but even if it was a coin flip can balance out after 2 flips or it can never actual balance out, the idea that it balances it statistical is simply a falsehood gained by stopping the equation once the flips have balanced and then going oh yeah it did balance out..if something is a 50/50 chance claiming it balanced out just because for a brief moment at the 100k flip it balanced is ludicrous especially when a next try won’t have it balancing out at that same 100k.
you mention deck of cards, you do realize card counting is a thing, and so is dealers manipulation of the cards by the way they shuffle the deck…....why the heck do you thing high end casinos use machines to shuffle the cards? why do you think most lottery companies don’t use one machine but multiple and try to randomize it by have people choose which one gets used which day? its because they fully realize and accept the fact an rng isn’t actually random, that it goes by an algorithm/sequence.

an algorithm is not random, its a programmed sequence and thats fact…...a programmed sequence cannot dish out random numbers, it can only dish out numbers based on whats next in its programmed sequence, so as a result of a random number generator being programmed to actually have a 1/100 chance of any one thing happening out of a 100, that means past result will always count, because for it to reach a balance all the numbers must eventually balance out that’s also a fact…............the question is in a game like this is having an rng that seeks/is programmed to find balance in the millions of rolls sensible, and is it sensible for all players to pulling numbers from the same rng when as a result one players fortune will be another players misfortune.

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Posted: 09 September 2017 02:03 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]  
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stupid thing wouldn’t post, telling me it was spam..then it double post.

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Posted: 09 September 2017 03:03 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]  
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NN - 09 September 2017 02:03 PM

stupid thing wouldn’t post, telling me it was spam..then it double post.

  I guess the odds were not in your favor that time. raspberry sorry, couldn’t resist.

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Posted: 09 September 2017 11:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]  
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Can’t say I get it lol, the system is know to stupidly mark messages as spam…..and of course that is based on how its programmed.

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Posted: 11 September 2017 05:20 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]  
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what roll? its casino, its not normal game, but nobody care it seems, got 5 times in a row into 1 stage more than 90%, including 100. 5 times 100 vigor, I had no chance, what effects? what are you talking about? when casino rules it have no sence the game and all these effects.

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